Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Poll of eight states: Romney trails other major presidential contenders among conservatives

 December 20, 2010 by Allahpundit

Actually, that’s overstating it slightly: He does okay in his pop’s home state of Michigan, and he manages to eke past Gingrich for third place in some metrics in Wisconsin, but in the other six — including bellwethers like Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina — he’s fourth out of four. By a country mile, in some cases.
We’ve polled eight states, not including Massachusetts, since the 2010 election ended. Romney has the lowest favorability rating of the Republican top 4 with conservatives in every single one of those states except Michigan, where he probably benefits from his dad having been the Governor. And it’s not like Romney is just slightly less well liked than the others with conservatives- it’s a large gap, particularly when you compare him with Palin or Huckabee. Romney’s average favorability is 58%. Gingrich is next worst at 64%, followed by Huckabee at 73%, and Palin does best at 77%…
And because conservatives make up the lion’s share of Republican primary voters, it should come as no surprise that his issues with them are now leading to poor numbers for him overall in these early snapshots. Of the last eight states we’ve polled Romney has led in only one- Michigan- and even there he could only salvage a tie with Huckabee. Huckabee has led in four states overall with Palin ahead in three and Tim Pawlenty ahead in his home state. Romney’s average performance has been 15% with Gingrich at 16%, Palin at 20%, and Huckabee at 21%.
Palin leads the field among conservatives in all eight states, 22/21 over Huckabee, with Gingrich third at 15 percent and Romney fourth at 14 percent. Check out his numbers in Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina, especially — bearing in mind that as Palin, Huck, and/or Newt start to fade earlier in the primaries, their conservative supporters are likely to consolidate behind whoever’s left in that group of three, making Romney’s task even more difficult.

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