Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Given the power of the veto, is control of the Senate all that important?

With the final run up to the general election nearing, let us take a look beyond 2010, in particular the likely makeup of the senate post 2010.

Because senators terms are six years in length, each 2 year mid term election sees an approximate 33% of senate seats up for election. Circumstances which change these percentages are events such as retirements, criminal indictment, ethics violations, death, vacating seats early due to being elected to a different office.

In 2010 there are 37 senate seats up for election. In 2012 there will be 32 seats open as of today and in 2014 there will be 31 seats open.

Here is the current make up the 100 senators of the 111th Congress (independents are considered democrats or commucrats as I call them).

2010- 37
Democrats 19
Republicans 18

2012 – 32
Democrats 22
Republicans 10

2014-31
Democrats 18
Republicans 13

Going into the 112th Congress the 2012 and 2014 classes of senators give the democrats 40 standing seats, and the republicans 23 seats, this of course is the count before we add in the 2010 results.

The 2010 senate races are leaning very much in favor of the republicans. Added to their current 18 seats, an 11 seat net pick-up could very well happen this November. The pick up states are – Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Indiana, Illinois, Nevada, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Washington.

So on November 3, the republicans should bring in 29 ( 18+11)seats to go with the 23 standing seats. An overall total of 52 seats and a flipped senate.

It gets better, in 2012 there are a possible net pick up of 8 seats for the republicans, and in 2014 a net pick up of another 6 seats. The senate could very well look like this from 2010 forward-

2010-112th Congress
Republicans 52
Democrats 48

2012-113th Congress
Republicans 60
Democrats 40


2014-114th Congress
Republicans 66
Democrats 34

Wresting control of the senate from the Leftist/Marxist party is extremely important, but given the 60 vote Cloture Rule, 41 senate votes can stop any legislation. On top of that an oval office veto requires 67 senate votes to over ride. Whether the republicans/tea party win 52 seats or some other amount, will not necessarily dictate legislative control. The majority party will have though the power to set legislative agendas, have committee control, and they will be in charge of hearings and investigations.

Should the 2010 election fall short by a 2 seat net pick up, we will then have a 50-50 senate. Joe Biden then becomes a deciding vote as President of the Senate. To take Biden out of the basic equation 2010 has to provide 10 or more net pick up votes. All of this is a tall order, but is doable. The polls are favoring this outcome.

But let us not expect anything more than gridlock in the coming two years, a)because of the veto and b) the cloture rule. The irony is as late as July, the democrats in a convention in Las Vegas were still calling for lowering the Cloture Rule thresh hold to a simple majority of 51 votes. Given the democrats currently have as backup the oval office veto, that veto threat may be the factor which provides them with a near term comfort zone, especially now given the bleak outlook for becoming the new minority party. If the republicans held the presidency, I would still agree with Thomas Jefferson's assertion for the need of consideration of the minority viewpoint. The current 60-40 Filibuster Rule diluted by democrat Woodrow Wilson in 1913, and again by the democrats in 1975, protects the minority view point. As tempting as it is to stick it to the democrats, we must look beyond them, and stay true to our system of checks and balances as outlined by our Founding Fathers in the Constitution. As a matter of fact I would like to see the number go back to Jefferson's original 2/3rds or 67 votes constitutional requirement to stop a senate filibuster. Such dilution even though by senate rule change, is in fact an unratified amending of the constitution.

Democrat senators Harkin and Durbin are two of the main proponents to change the Rules of the Senate, to allow a simple majority vote of 51, as the decider of all senate legislation. Harkin and Durbin understand full well the ramifications such a rule change would mean on the designed system of constitutional checks and balances. As we have seen in the last election, vote rigging was prevalent in all of the battleground states. Future elections would be blatantly rigged, with one of the major objectives being, securing the 51st senate vote.

Disloyalty to the founding principles is not mere political gamesmanship, it is criminal behavior against the nation. Some would call it high treason. Those democrats, who disguise their so called political goals as a means to gain party power, are being criminally dishonest. What these individuals are after is the subversion of the constitution. And as a free people, we know once the constitution goes under, so does our liberty.

Steve

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