MASSACHUSETTS ELECTION UPDATE...

From POLITICO:
BOSTON MASSACRE? Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley votes this morning at Brooks Elementary School in Medford, with only a little more reason for optimism than she had a few days ago. Public polling puts the race anywhere between a tie (Daily Kos/Research 2000) to a nine-point lead for Republican Scott Brown (Insider Advantage). REPUBLICAN INTERNALS gave Brown a five-point lead Monday, with that number growing in a lower-turnout scenario. Democratic polling also gave the Republican a slight edge, but one Dems believe can be overcome through GOTV.

TWO TAKES – WHY IT’S BROWN’S TO LOSE: Brown has all the momentum on his side and that’s not an accident. He’s been working for this: as of Sunday, he had had made 66 campaign stops since the primary election, compared with 19 for Coakley. His supporters are fired up and polling has consistently shown independents fleeing Coakley, as they did Democrats Jon Corzine in New Jersey and Creigh Deeds in Virginia.

AND WHY COAKLEY’S STILL IN IT: This has become a national race and Massachusetts is still a deep-blue state. The same turnout machine that handed embattled Mayor Tom Menino a historic fifth term running Boston last November will be working for Coakley today. Obama’s visit helped perk up already worried Democrats. And even if she’s run a weak campaign, Coakley is a statewide officeholder who had strong popularity until recently.

FIVE THINGS TO WATCH – From POLITICO’s Josh Kraushaar and Alex Isenstadt: “Look at the South Shore … Watch for signs of life from the Democratic machine … The I-495 suburbs … The female vote … Kennedy’s impact.”

THE OBAMA MACHINE -- A Democratic official says the DNC’s Organizing for America, at least, is a winner today: “It's clear, win or lose, OFA has flexed the muscle of the president's grassroots army. One of the primary reasons the race is even close going into Election Day is the work OFA has done which has brought much of the base home and increased Democratic participation according to polls by double digits. The lesson here is that an engaged Organizing for America can help put a campaign in a position to win. Whether a particular campaign has an infrastructure, the talent and the candidate to put it over the top is another story.” From Saturday through last night, OFA vols across the country made 1.2 million calls into Massachusetts on behalf of Coakley.

TOMORROW’S GOP MESSAGE: If Brown wins or comes close in Massachusetts, it’s open season on Democratic House and Senate members across the country, Republicans say, including the two House seats in next-door New Hampshire. “Democrat-leaning seats that were once viewed as marginally competitive are now officially on the table. The Sestak, Baird, Hodes open seats are prime pickup opportunities for the GOP,” a Republican strategist involved in House races told Morning Score. “Any Democrat who voted for healthcare sitting in one of the 49 seats carried by John McCain is now in for the race of their lives,” the strategist added, naming Reps. Zack Space (D-Ohio) and Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.) as prime targets.

Republicans also wonder if a Brown victory will draw a new wave of Senate candidates. “If you’re looking ahead to having the possibility of retaking the Senate this cycle, you would need to add a few more players on the field,” said a Republican strategist who pointed to races in Indiana, Wisconsin, Washington and Oregon as places where new recruits could have an opening.