As of yesterday, Republicans hadn't picked up a seat from Democrats in a special election since 2001. That losing streak came to an end in the most unlikeliest of places, Hawaii's First Congressional District. Charles Djou defeated a pair of Democrats in a winner-take-all election, taking 40% of the vote to their 31% and 28%. President Barack Obama carried the district in 2008 with 70% of the vote.
But the district is historically somewhat competitive. It has gone Republican in gubernatorial elections fairly routinely. Al Gore got 55% of the vote, while John Kerry received 53% of the vote. Rep. Neil Abercrombie faced a pair of competitive races in the mid-90s, and it was represented by a Republican in the late 1980s. If you remove Barack Obama's election results, no doubt inflated by his "hometown hero" status, it is probably a D+5 or D+6 district.
This November, Democrats nevertheless have a good chance of taking the district back. After all, the Democrats combined for 60% of the vote. It's not a done deal -- after all, Djou will be an incumbent, and while the Democrats will not be splitting the vote, there's no guarantee that the Democrats' supporters will turn out. Blue Dog Ed Case's supporters may not show up for the more liberal Colleen Hanabusa (or may vote Republican) if she is the nominee, while Hanabusa's supporters may not show up for Case if he wins the primary. Still, Democrats would have to abandon ship in awfully high numbers for Djou to carry the day.