Thursday, September 16, 2010

25 wins, 9 losses...sounds like a winning season!...

Palin Endorsements Help Trigger Upsets In GOP Primaries


By DAVID HOGBERG AND SEAN HIGGINS, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
09/15/2010

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. AP

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. AP View Enlarged Image

Written off by pundits as a lightweight, mocked by comedians as a dummy and quietly cursed as a loose cannon by Republican officials, Sarah Palin has nevertheless emerged as a potent kingmaker in national politics. Her success may be setting up a run for president in 2012.

On the surface, Palin's endorsement record is impressive. Of the 36 candidates facing contested primaries that she has endorsed, 25 have won. That's a win ratio of just under 70%.

What makes it really notable is that it includes several upsets that have shocked the Washington establishment. Many of Palin's picks were opposed by the GOP leadership, which poured resources into other candidates.

Upsets? You Betcha

These upsets include Joe Miller in Alaska, Nikki Haley in South Carolina, Sharron Angle in Nevada and, on Tuesday, Christine O'Donnell in Delaware.

While elections are rarely determined by one factor, many cite Palin's endorsement as key in bringing in donations and whipping up grass-roots support.

Rob Godfrey, a spokesman for Haley — the GOP nominee for governor in the Palmetto State — said Palin's "decision to get involved — and stay involved — in the race here was a huge boon to our campaign, because it caused a lot of South Carolinians to take a second look at a once little-known — but rising in the polls — state legislator who was fighting to give them back their government."

Even those who didn't make it say the endorsement made a big difference. For example, Cecile Bledsoe lost her bid to be the GOP nominee for Arkansas' 3rd Congressional District by a slim 52%-48% result. She only wishes she got the endorsement sooner.

"It helped tremendously," Bledsoe said. "She certainly carries a lot of influence with conservatives. Anyone who can gain her endorsement is very fortunate."

Tea Party: Palin Not Queen

But not everyone is persuaded of Palin's prowess. Some Tea Party activists view her with wariness.

"She's not the de facto leader of the Tea Party movement," said Mark Meckler, national coordinator for the Tea Party Patriots. "She came to the Tea Party movement late. The media has hyped up her role. Her influence is greater with those conservatives who are not part of the Tea Party movement."

Sal Russo, a strategist for the Tea Party Express, agreed, but said Palin had been able to find common ground with them more often than the GOP had: "When the Tea Party Express and Gov. Palin (work together) it's a strong combination ... Palin has a very bright future, but there is no leader of the Tea Party movement and that's one of its strengths."

Republican Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell of Delaware celebrated Wednesday in Dover. AP

Republican Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell of Delaware celebrated Wednesday in Dover. AP View Enlarged Image

National GOP officials can be skittish about Palin. Republican National Committee spokesman Doug Heye called her "enormously influential within the party," but when asked if she had become a kingmaker for Republicans, he demurred: "I'm not going to get into that kind of stuff."

O'Donnell's 53%-47% upset victory in the Delaware GOP Senate primary over the establishment candidate, Rep. Mike Castle, on Tuesday may explain why.

Palin endorsed and recorded a radio ad and "robo-call" for O'Donnell last week. It caused serious heartburn for Republican Party officials. They believed that Castle had a much better shot at winning the general election.

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a statement that he was sending a $42,000 donation to O'Donnell's campaign, but he indicated that the NRSC might limit its donations later.

"In the weeks ahead, we will decide where to best allocate additional financial resources among the large number of competitive races at stake this November," he said, notably not citing O'Donnell's race as a competitive one.

Who Knocked Down Castle?

Palin's influence in the Delaware race is "difficult to gauge," said Joseph Pika, a professor of political science and associate dean at the University of Delaware. "The Tea Party Express endorsement received more publicity and came with money. Palin, of course, may have helped trigger contributions too, but it is harder to judge."

O'Donnell was boosted by a $250,000 ad expenditure the Tea Party Express made on her behalf.

Of course, not all of the Palin-preferred candidates in those races were underdogs. Rep. Mary Fallin, R-Okla., led in most of the polls leading up to her victory in the Oklahoma Republican primary for governor. Fallin won with 55% of the vote.

Nevertheless, the Fallin campaign emphasized that Palin's endorsement was important.

"The endorsement was helpful," said Alex Weintz, a spokesman for the Fallin campaign. "It helped us solidify our support among staunch conservative Republicans."

Republican strategist Dave Winston says Palin's success within the GOP has to do with her zeroing in on an issue of concern to Republican voters: runaway federal spending.

Highlighting The Positive

He also notes that in making her endorsements Palin is doing a better job of selling her candidates than the GOP establishment: "She highlights the positive. Castle didn't run any positive ads about himself until the very, very end of his campaign."

Some analysts suggest that Palin's endorsements are part of a process leading to a race for the White House.

"I assume she is laying the foundation for a 2012 nomination run," the University of Delaware's Pika said.

Winston sees Palin as a contender: "When you look at the surveys, she is in the top tier. There is a sense that people know what her brand is."

Meckler was unsure. "Your guess is as good as mine," he said.

When asked if he could support Palin for president, he replied: "It depends on who else is out there."

If Palin ends up not running, her presidential endorsement could be decisive for the GOP nomination.

1 comment:

  1. It seems that everyone has forgotten -- or, never heard Sarah's remarks last January when she was interviewed and asked about her relationship with the RINO John McCain,. She replied, "Oh. He and I get along just fine -- I agree with him 100%!" The same McCain who said, before the general election, "Obama would make a fine president!" Huh? The same McCain who has joined leading Democrats in authoring legislation that has been declared UNconstitutional -- and Palin agrees 100%?? I guess she must, she spent lots of energy campaigning for McCain in his re-election bid in Arizona. (Crazy Arizonans -- re-elect a Senator whose record shows that HE is in FAVOR OF AMNESTY -- the bait that is drawing millions of illegals into USA via Arizona.

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