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Against the Grain
by Josh Kraushaar

AGAINST THE GRAIN
Storm Clouds Ahead for Obama
The president faces multiple challenges as he preps his reelection campaign.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011


Since the beginning of the year, the conventional wisdom has held that President Obama looks like the favorite to win reelection.

The Republican presidential field is weak. Obama is triangulating, dealing with the GOP on tax and spending cuts.

His approval ratings hover close to 50 percent, and Republicans just unveiled a budget plan that would revamp Medicare, risking a backlash with seniors, a key GOP bloc.

But beneath the surface, there are red flags his reelection team faces—fundamental weaknesses that suggest a close presidential race and raise questions about Obama’s long-term political health.

1. Growing economic pessimism. Despite the unemployment rate slowly improving, there are signs Americans are increasingly downbeat about the economy. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed that only 21 percent of respondents said they were better off economically than one year ago, with 31 percent saying things have gotten worse. The poll found as many voters thought the country was headed on the wrong track than at any other time in Obama’s presidency. The poll of 1,000 adults was conducted March 31 to April 4, and has a 3-point error margin.

A separate Pew Research Center poll of 1,507 adults, conducted March 30-April 3, finds a similarly pessimistic view of the future. The proportion of Americans rating the current economic conditions as poor has jumped 11 points since February, from 42 percent to 53 percent. A 54 percent majority believes it will take a “long time before the economy recovers”—up 12 points in the last two months. Needless to say, these aren’t the signs of a public anticipating Morning in America.

And other economic indicators outside of the unemployment rate suggest storm clouds. The unemployment rate reduction hasn’t been accompanied by any increase in labor force participation. According to Brookings Institution economist Gary Burtless, the number of long-term unemployed has been steadily increasing over the past year. Income continues to stagnate—real hourly wages have fallen 1 percent from October 2010 to February 2011. Rising gas prices aren’t helping.

Meanwhile, Obama is counting on similar turnout and enthusiasm from his base of young voters, Hispanics, and African-Americans again in 2012. The recession has hit those groups the hardest, and it will be a challenge for Obama’s re-election team to come close to the record support and turnout that fueled his victory in 2008.

So it’s hard to see how Obama improves his standing markedly, particularly on a campaign that will likely center on the economy.

2. Issues fought on GOP turf. It was striking to see Obama strategist David Plouffe hit the Sunday talk shows proclaiming a message of deficit reduction—praising the significant cuts in the fiscal 2011 spending deal that Democrats previously called draconian. But it’s a sign Republicans have won the argument over spending. Two years after signing the stimulus, Obama has accepted the GOP’s austerity agenda.

For a party in control of the White House and the Senate, it was a surprisingly weak return—with the Democrats’ main accomplishment preventing policy riders from being attached to a six-month bill.

It’s the latest capitulation for the White House, since it caved to GOP demands on tax cuts during the lame duck. The administration’s struggles selling its signature health care law are indicative of the challenges Obama faces in selling his policies.

Democrats might have the advantage in the latest budget battle, with Republicans proposing to alter the way Medicare is delivered.

Democratic officials are eagerly awaiting this week’s vote on the GOP budget, believing it could be costly for Republicans, much like former President George W. Bush’s plan to partially privatize Social Security. Obama outlines his own deficit reduction plan Wednesday, one that involves changing entitlements but also includes tax hikes on the rich.

But it’s far from a guarantee the political burden will fall entirely on Republicans. When Republicans took their lumps on Social Security and Democrats spent significant political capital on health care, it was when they controlled both the White House and Congress—and bore the consequences of overreach. Health care reform was already law when Republicans ran against it. Any future fiscal reforms will be the product of compromise and negotiation.

And it’s harder to score political points when the president is proposing his own entitlement cuts, and is revisiting raising taxes on the wealthy—an issue the party retreated from during last year’s lame duck. Voters will be choosing between higher taxes or fewer benefits—neither a particularly palatable option.

3. Poll problems. Even as Republican congressional leaders and governors are making frontal attacks on entitlements and pension programs, there’s no sign Obama is gaining any traction with groups disproportionately affected by these positions.

While Republican strategists fear the cuts could do irreparable harm to gains the party made last year with seniors and blue-collar voters, Obama isn’t making up any ground among them. The latest Pew poll found Obama’s approval rating stuck at a dismal 34 percent among white women without a college education, and is 35 percent among white men without a college education. Meanwhile, Obama has some work to do in winning over seniors. His approval rating among white seniors is at 38 percent in the Pew poll.

Nineteen months is a lifetime in politics, and these numbers will move as the presidential campaign gets under way. But given the fundamental challenges the president faces with the economy, winning over constituencies resistant to his message, and taking the lead in advancing his own agenda, Republicans might not need a flawless challenger to give Obama a serious run for his money.

This article appeared in the Wednesday, April 13, 2011 edition of National Journal Daily.

COMMENTSEnter Your Comment

Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2011 | 9:31 p.m.
Obama will lose badly. The Dems in the Senate will lose badly. Good.

Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2011 | 7:49 p.m.
!. Incompetant Imbecile 2. Bold faced Liar 3. AH (steve's ed note: AH? as in A hole?)

Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2011 | 7:40 p.m.
Is it just me, or is the average liberal in these comment sections really, really dumb? I mean, liberals never make logical sense, but most liberals I know in real life are able to string sentences together, unlike the guy below me. As for the article, it's way too soon to tell yet whether or not Obama is going down. He needs the recovery to pick up in earnest if he wants to have any chance at all, but that will accelerate the inflation problem. The GOP nominee will also be a factor. My bet is that 2012 is going to be 2004 close, with 2 or 3 states deciding the outcome. Also, don't be surprised to see traditional Republican states like Nevada and Colorado stay blue and more Democratic states like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan go red. Demographics are changing, and the events in Wisconsin show that the state is now evenly divided at best from the Democrats' point of view.

Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2011 | 7:35 p.m.
The post from today5"05 is an idiot. This liar constantly contradicts himself. One day tax cuts..5 minutes later-it's off. Then he is for attacking in Libya..5 minutes later//we're out. Is everyone out there seein this inept fool now???? The mask is off. He' DANGEROUS!!!!!!!!!

Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2011 | 5:05 p.m.
HAHAHAHA! Are you joking. You Republicans keep telling yourself this nonsense. Do you really believe he will lose. You are going to be crying yourself to sleep. Your not being honest with yourself, your in denial what's new. As much as you bash the President you obviously are lying to yourself. Without a doubt the President will win, not because he will win; but because Republicans will lose. COCKY CONSERVATIVE ELITIST never sell well to the American public. Neither does crying!

Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2011 | 3:23 p.m.
The Fat Lady is warming up. No way Obama's numbers are hovering around 50, more like the low 30's. The Democrats will loose even bigger than they did in 2010. The Senate may even have a veto proof Republican majority in 2013. Obama may almost singlehandedly destroy the Democratic Party and at the same time revive the Republicans, not to mention take credit for creating The Tea Party. He's just that good.

Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2011 | 3:14 p.m.
I respect the Office of The Presidency. One of the things I expect that officeholder to do is exactly the same PLUS respect the VOICE of his/her constituency. While remaining hopeful for future national improvement on many fronts, LIKE JOBS, it is almost impossible for me personally to keep giving this President the benefit of the doubt. I would rather hear bad news straight up with options to deal with it instead of being lied to repeatedly. Practical experience counts for any executive position. He had none when running, and none when elected. Campaigns are not terms in office, and it was vaguely perverse watching the fawning of the mainstream media in 2008. Hopefully (though sadly not likely) they will ask QUESTIONS this time around. In my view he's demonstrated already that he's a better campaigner than a Chief Executive of The United States of America, so ya gotta acknowledge that. Grab your boots and hike up your cuffs.... "Elections have consequences"...sounds like a plan for 2012 to me!

Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2011 | 3:10 p.m.
So, the article states that only white folk with no college education have strong disapproval numbers for Pres Obama. How about interviewing those of us who are educated and disapproves of this president?Well, here is one educated woman who strongly disapproves of every policy he's embraced!

Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2011 | 3:09 p.m.
when elected, odumbo had NO RELEVANT EXPERIENCE since then, he has proved he has NO RELEVANT SKILLS OTHER THAN LYING

Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2011 | 2:57 p.m.
I work at a Charity, The calls are 7 days a week 2 shifts a day. We hear it all. Everyone at work knew this last election would give Republicans the House and a close run at the Senate. It was no surprise. 2012 The America people are going to Slap Obama and the Communist Democrat Party silly. They are going DOWN and it's for the next few hundred years. They Despised and Hated, they will find out soon enough.....! Watch and see what America does to them, their time is over.........!

Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2011 | 2:56 p.m.
The storm clouds regarding reelection hover over you in the liberal media: What percentage of the population can you count of fooling this time around?

Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2011 | 2:36 p.m.
Reelect Steve Dunham! (steve's ed note-Steve Dunham one of Obama's many aliases)

Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2011 | 2:33 p.m.
when you make Jimmy Carter look above average the only answer is hare-carey... do the country a favor and fall on your sword..

Posted Wednesday, April 13, 2011 | 2:32 p.m.
There is a better chance of Obama being prosecuted than reelected. JOHN SVENGALI

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This article was posted on Politico a Leftist mouthpiece site.

Do you not find it interesting the comments in response to the propaganda message runs 13 to 1 against. The liberals are abandoning ship, there's nobody left to answer,only the crackhead deadbeats and they're too stoned to respond.

Steve