Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Weighting The Rasmussen Poll Numbers

An eon ago I had a conversation with my blog partner Gary, about the Rasmussen Presidential Favorability tracking poll. We often looked at that to gauge how the voters were trending and whether right wing info sources were making progress on informing the people about Obama's duplicity and his anti-americanism.

Cutting to the chase, Gary asked for my opinion on what the likely lowest percentage
number would be for those who "strongly approve of Obama"and the lowest number for those who would still "support" him. I came up with 19 % who would strongly support Obama no matter what, and 21% additional who would support him if for no other reason than being staunch democrats. This gave me an overall number of 40% that would probably vote for him in 2012.

The Rasmussen Poll hit the 19% "strongly approve" Obama number on Monday 4/11/11 for the first time ever. The overall approval number is still higher at 44%, but it too has been as low as 42% at one point.

If you look at the voter split, rep,ind, and dem. Rasmussen shows 44% say they are republicans and would vote republican 94% of the time. 38% say they are democrats and 83% would vote for a dem. The remainder 18% are independents and 65% would vote other than democrat. Generally that would mean anti rino in the primaries, and definitely anti Obama in a general election.

Weighting these numbers gives the following Right Wing vote percentage:

Ind 18% X 65% =11.7%
Rep 44% X 94% =41.4%
Dem 38% X 17% = 6.5%

Total  59.6%

Almost the 60%-40% split I predicted over a year ago. The Reagan vs Carter election was in this realm, and it was labeled a landslide.

Obama and his dupes talk up "their" polls by CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, but we know the story there. Those media outlets are garbage peddlers,and no longer trustworthy. In fact Obama was saying the same things before the November 2010 midterms, and look how those turned out.

Obama not worried about Trump? Yeah right.

BTW the Wall Street Journal has Trump leading all republican likelys as of today.

Steve

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